Nairobi — Climate change is expected to bring
a shift in Kenya's cereal production, particularly for maize and wheat,
as regions previously not conducive for growing these crops become more
productive. Such areas could, between 2010 and 2050, become the
country's new breadbaskets, say the authors of a new analysis.
"Future growing conditions will be variable, and areas that have
traditionally produced maize and wheat might not be conducive for the
crops while those areas that didn't support it might be the new
frontiers," James Kinyangi, climate change, agriculture and food
security regional leader at the Consultative Group on International
Agricultural Research (CGIAR), told IRIN.
The analysis, East African Agriculture and Climate Change, was
written by researchers from the International Food Policy and Research
Institute and the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in
Eastern and Central Africa.
The authors analyzed data from four different climate models to
assess the impact of climate change on crop yields at over 6,000
locations.
In one scenario, rising temperatures made it impossible to grow maize
in parts of Kenya's Rift Valley - traditionally the country's largest
maize-growing region - while in the coastal region, maize yields could
drop by as much as 25 percent.
All four models revealed that rainfall will
increase in certain arid and semi-arid regions, such as Kituyi, Samburu
and Isiolo, allowing maize to be grown in areas previously too dry to
support the crop's production. Similarly, some higher-altitude regions,
which have been too cold for maize to thrive, will become warm enough
for maize to grow.
The report said: "All models predict yield gains in areas that have
not previously been able to cultivate maize. These are areas that were
too dry for successful maize production.
With new areas becoming available for maize cultivation, it seems
important that policymakers consider encouraging people to cultivate
maize in these areas sometime in the future. Some of these might be
areas that are currently receiving precipitation that is not adequate to
support maize production, like most of the [arid and semiarid lands]."
According to the authors, wheat yields will fall in fields cultivated
on the slopes of Mt Kenya and Mt Elgon, but will increase in areas near
Nakuru, a highland region in the Rift Valley Province.
Tools and know-how
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network determined in its August
2010 climate trend analysis of Kenya that since 1960, rainfall in
central Kenya has declined by more than 100ml.
This decline is probably linked to warming in the Indian Ocean, and
seems likely to continue. It further concluded that critical surplus
crop-growing areas in central Kenya are threatened, and the amount of
prime arable land could diminish substantially.
But experts say that Kenyan farmers - given the right tools and
know-how - could not only survive but thrive in the face of climate
change.
"Climate change might have adverse effects on farmers, but if they
are given information and the right technological transfers to improve
farming and change their farming methods, they can thrive.
As it is now, farmers are shying away from investing in agriculture
because they are risk-averse," John Gathenya, climate change research
fellow at the Walker Institute for Climate System Research, told IRIN.
Gathenya noted that while farmers are eager to adapt, "they lack the
necessary support to do so". He added, "The government, for instance,
must collaborate closely with research institutions to come up with
drought-tolerant and fast-maturing crop seeds, while farmers must be
encouraged to diversify to keep pace with the changing climate and grow
crops that suit their regions."
According to the authors, Kenya's maize production could increase by
60 to 100 percent, but only if the country sees the technological
advancements needed to improve maize production.
"We can examine the regions that might become more conducive to maize
production and consider whether, due to environmental concerns, we
should protect some areas and selectively develop others. And we can
invest in the research that can generate innovations, like drought- or
heat-tolerant crop varieties, and the agricultural advisory services
critical to ensuring farmers are able to make use of these crops," they
noted.
Kinyangi said: "Climate change will bring both good and bad effects,
but farmers must be prepared to take advantage of opportunities that
will come with it. This could mean encouraging them to diversify to
crops that can adapt to their regions."
Recalibrating agriculture
The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which takes into consideration
technological improvements, projects an increase of around 80 percent in
maize yield between 2010 and 2050, which seems to be large enough to
meet in-country demand.
According to a recent study by the International Maize and Wheat
Improvement Centre, the demand for maize in the developing world is
expected to double by 2050.
According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization, maize, wheat and rice account for half the calories consumed globally.
To help farmers adapt to the new weather patterns, the researchers
recommend increased investment in irrigated agriculture and
infrastructure to increase access to markets, coupled with a reduction
in population growth.
"Although irrigation agriculture has the potential to serve as an
important adaptive intervention against known and anticipated adverse
effects of cli¬mate change, the situation in Kenya is such that
irrigation accounts for only 1.7 percent of the total land area under
agriculture, which calls for an up-scaling of irrigation," they said.
In a 2012 policy brief, CGIAR noted that recalibrating agriculture in
the face of climate change will require more than planting crops that
can withstand warmer weather.
"Some commodities, for example, can grow in warm weather but cannot
resist the insects and diseases whose prevalence will increase. Others
can tolerate a lack of water but not the sporadic flooding that occurs
with more common weather extremes," it said.
Experts like Michael Okoti, a climate change specialist at the Kenya
Agricultural Research Institute, told IRIN, "It is not just varieties
alone that need to improve, but there is need to also build the capacity
of farmers and make those new varieties accessible to them."
He added, "Change takes time, and even as it comes with climate
change, there is need to have farmers participate in new initiatives to
improve buy-in."
[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations.]
